9 Alyansa bets among 'possible winners' in April SWS survey (2025)

Will the SWS April survey reflect on the May 12 election results? Rappler looks back at how the April 2019 midterm poll results compared to the actual outcomes.

MANILA, Philippines – Nine senatorial candidates from the administration’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas have been included in the list of “possible winners” in the April pre-election survey conducted by polling firm Social Weather Stations (SWS).

Reelectionist Senator Bong Go topped the survey, which was released on Monday, April 21 — just three weeks before the 2025 midterm elections. He was followed by administration bets Erwin Tulfo and reelectionist Senator Lito Lapid, who ranked second and third, respectively.

Below is the complete list of the “possible winners” based on the April SWS survey:

• Bong Go – 1 (45%)
• Erwin Tulfo – 2 (43%)
• Lito Lapid – 3 (34%)
• Pia Cayetano – 4 to 5 (33%)
• Tito Sotto – 4 to 5 (33%)
• Bato dela Rosa – 6 (32%)
• Bong Revilla – 7 to 8 (31%)
• Ben Tulfo – 7 to 8 (31%)
• Abby Binay – 9 (29%)
• Camille Villar – 10 (28%)
• Ping Lacson – 11 (26%)
• Manny Pacquiao – 12 (25%)

The survey was conducted from April 11 to 15, using face-to-face interviews, among 1,800 registered voters. It was commissioned by Stratbase Consultancy. Respondents were asked the question: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino po ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang SENADOR NG PILIPINAS?” (If the elections were held today, who would you most likely vote for as SENATOR OF THE PHILIPPINES?)

Respondents were also presented the list of candidates from the Commission on Elections.

Reelectionist Senator Imee Marcos remains outside the winning circle, placing 13th to 14. She is statistically tied with actor and host Willie Revillame. Both have a 24% voter preference.

On April 14, Marcos released a campaign video with Vice President Sara Duterte. The30-second advertisementfeatures Duterte and Marcos exchanging lines about the government’s alleged neglect of basic national issues in favor of politics and power.

It’s worth noting that the rankings of some administration candidates declined compared to their March standings. For instance, Lacson, who ranked between 7th and 8th in March, dropped to 11th place. Revilla also slipped slightly from 6th to between 7th and 8th. Pacquiao experienced a similar decline, falling to 12th place — down from his earlier positions of 7th to 8th in January, and 11th to 13th in March.

Other Alyansa candidates saw gains in the April SWS survey. Pia Cayetano’s standing improved from 7th to 8th in March, to 4th to 5th in April, while Binay’s ranking also rose slightly — from 11th to 13th in March, to 9th place in April.

Villar, on the other hand, secured a precarious 10th place, slightly improving from her 11th to 13th ranking in the March survey. Her family name has recently made headlines due to issues surrounding PrimeWater, which has drawn criticism for years of poor service affecting its Filipino subscribers.

Meanwhile, the Senate bids of Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino remain an uphill battle, as both placed between 15th and 16th, with a 21% voter preference each.

Notably, former president Rodrigo Duterte’s endorsed candidates — Phillip Salvador and Rodante Marcoleta — fell from the winning circle, placing 17th to 18th, and 19th to 20th, respectively. In Pulse Asia’s March survey, Salvador ranked between 11th and 17th, while Marcoleta was between 12th and 18th. Pulse Asia has not released its survey for April.

Is this final?

With only 1% of voters undecided, the April SWS survey is likely to be a strong reflection of the upcoming May 12 election results — especially when compared to December, when the undecided voters stood at 12%. This sharp drop suggests that the names leading in the April survey are likely to dominate the midterm elections.

While political analyst and University of the Philippines professor Jean Franco agrees, she noted that the 99% can still be swayed by events leading up to election day.

“Yung 99% puwede ‘yung magbago pa din, depende sa kung ano pa ‘yung mga mangyayari in the coming days. Kung magising ‘yung iba doon sa mga fake news na na-expose sa kanila. Pero sana ‘yung mga tao, huwag naman sila magbase sa survey kung sino ‘yung iboboto nila,” Franco told Rappler.

(The 99% could still change depending on what happens in the coming days, especially if others become aware of the fake news that they had been exposed to. But I hope people won’t base their votes solely on surveys.)

Franco, however, said that the top eight candidates have already secured their spots in the winning circle, and the remaining contested positions are for the last four places.

Comparing the April SWS survey results for the 2025 midterms with those of the same survey conducted during the same period for the 2019 elections, eight candidates who were on the “possible winners” list in April 2019 also made it to the actual results.

In April 2019, leading candidates Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, and Bong Go went on to secure the top three spots in the senatorial race. Bam Aquino, who ranked 12th in the survey, ultimately lost and finished 14th. Meanwhile, Imee Marcos and Francis Tolentino, who were outside the winning circle at the time — placing 14th and 15th, respectively — ended up finishing 8th and 9th in the actual results. – Rappler.com